INFLATION
Argentina continues to grapple with persistent inflationary pressures, as consumer prices recorded an annual increase of 33.1% in February, slightly up from 32.4% in January. On a month-on-month basis, February saw a 2.90% rise, following a 2.88% increase in the preceding month. Looking ahead, market traders on Polymarket are assigning a 65.5% implied probability that Argentina's March monthly CPI inflation will fall within the 3.1–3.3% range. The Central Bank had previously warned in January that the disinflation process faces seasonal risks and uncertainties due to new methodologies, with high beef prices and impending utility bill hikes posing potential impacts on consumer prices.
ECONOMICGROWTH
Argentina's economic activity expanded by a modest 1.9% annually in January 2026, marking a notable deceleration from the 3.3% growth observed in December 2025. While primary industries such as fisheries, agriculture, and mining demonstrated robust growth, expanding by 50.8%, 25.1%, and 9.6% respectively, the manufacturing, retail, and utilities sectors experienced contractions of 2.6%, 3.2%, and 3%. This significant sectoral divergence highlights underlying structural challenges and limited domestic investment confidence, contributing to a sluggish start for the national economy. Unemployment also saw an uptick, reaching 7.5% at the close of the fourth quarter of 2025.
TRADE
Argentina has secured a monumental legal victory as a U.S. appeals court today voided a $16.1 billion judgment against the nation concerning the 2012 seizure of oil company YPF. This decision is a significant triumph for President Javier Milei, potentially alleviating substantial economic strain on the country. Concurrently, a comprehensive trade and investment agreement between Argentina and the United States, finalized on February 5, 2026, is set to further bolster the nation's economic outlook. The deal includes Argentina's commitment to eliminate tariffs on over 200 categories of U.S. goods, while the U.S. will remove reciprocal tariffs on 1,675 Argentine products and increase access for Argentine beef.